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Predicting short term movements in the market

The fallacy of predicting Short-Term movements in Investing

I keep getting asked this question a lot of times “What do you think of the markets?” My answer is “I don’t know.” We are in the business of equity analysis and not astrology. Let me give a recent example of how hazardous predicting short-term movements can be. Two events happened recently. On the same day. The RBI governor resigned abruptly and the ruling party lost elections in 3 key states.

According to media and pundits, these were big negatives. The market should have gone down due to these events. But, we all know what happened. We had a superb rally. Nifty rose by more than 600 points and broader markets also participated to a good extent. This has happened many times before too, when market behaved contrary to what many think in the short term.

Investors spend too much time thinking about short-term views. They must be spending that time wisely, researching companies, reading annual reports, learning about industries/sectors, understanding market and business cycles, doing scuttle-butt. There are a few things investors can control and a few things they cannot.

What they cannot control is market behavior. What they can control is their behavior. We try to predict the former, which is not in their control. Do the things that you can control. Control your greed, master your fears, focus on buying companies at good valuations, learn to be patient, understand and learn from mistakes and so on.

On the macro and micro front, there will be something or the other wrong at all points. Learn to live with them. What one can do and must be focused on is buying businesses at good valuations. Below their intrinsic value. Track them diligently. Always write a hypothesis before you buy. And keep visiting it at periodic intervals. A value investor always should focus on buying a dollar worth of assets at 40-50 cents or lower. And opportunities do come. Just wait for those opportunities. In short-term markets may always be not efficient. But in long-term, as long as the company you invest in performs, the stock price will follow, provided you have entered at comfortable valuations. Control your temperament.

One must also learn the art of selling. Every asset has a price to sell. When valuations are in blue sky zone, one may book profits. It doesn’t matter, even if it is a good/great company. Corrections are inevitable. Blue sky valuations also correct. Wait for the companies to come into value zone, before buying. An example. An IT major is still at a 30%+ discount to its price of the year 2000, despite growing its profit by 25 times in this 18 year period. It was a decent company then and is still a decent company. One will find many examples like this in the market. My belief is one should be detached from stocks. Never love them and never be married to them. Look at them critically from time to time. Seek disconfirming evidence from people in your trust network. Building a trust network is very very important and it really helps.

As far as Indian markets are concerned, we must have a long-term view. Short-term challenges will always be there. This country is going to grow at a good pace for many years to come. The demographics simply point to that. As per capita income crosses $2000, a lot of things change. Incremental income is spent a lot on consumption, health care and so on.

We, at Aurum Capital, always focus on the long-term. We believe our job is to identify good companies at good valuations, keep tracking them rigorously, and stay the course, till valuations are in favor. This is what we can focus on, and that is what we focus on.

As always, we eagerly look forward to receiving your response.

-Happy Investing.

Jiten Parmar
Aurum Capital
SEBI registration No: INA000011024
To know more about our services: https://aurumcapital.in/services

Disclaimer: The stock name/s mentioned are only for the education purpose. These should not be considered as our recommendations/advise. Please consult an investment advisor before taking any decision.

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Jiten Parmar’s presentation at IC 2018, Live on bloomberquint.com

This is the presentation that Jiten Parmar made at IC 2018, and which was presented on bloombergquint.com . The live feed and the presentation both are attached below. We believe it will be good for investors to see the presentation and understand the psychological aspects of investing and learn some traits of successful investors.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/in-the-news/investors-carnival-jiten-parmar-on-what-makes-an-investor-tick

 

https://www.slideshare.net/JitenParmar4/investor-behavior-traits

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Regarding market condition

This note was written to our subscribers about two weeks ago.  The underline message continues to be valid and may benefit others. So we decided to post it on the blog.
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Dear Subscribers,

There has been a big panic since last few days in the market. This had seen a correction in several stocks.

We have been cautious in giving recommendations, and hope subscribers understand the reasons now. We had been facing macro headwinds and to top that valuations in many stocks were not attractive. We now believe risk-reward ratio is returning in favor and there is an enhanced margin of safety.

In our views, such times of panic are friends of long-term investors and provide great opportunities.

Also, remember that when a big earthquake comes it is followed by tremors. We will continue to witness volatility, it is going to be here. On the economy front, there are macro issues. But on the micro front, our economy is doing well and the ground reports suggest picking up in economic activities all across. While the economy does well, we will have to keep a close watch on macros too. If they deteriorate any further we will keep you posted for next actions.

Specifically regarding NBFCs. The valuations are critical and we have been harping on this from the beginning. NBFC valuations were very high and it needed a trigger to correct, howsoever small it may be. Always understand, the sectors once they go out of favor, do take time to come back in flavor. So, one must be very careful in catching falling knives. Unless you understand the knife well.

If you have any questions, feel free to post it in Investor Forum available for paid subscribers. These are not responded by any assistant or Account Manager. All the emails and questions in the Investor Forum are personally replied by the founder. If we find a merit in the question, e.g. related to the investment, market, and not repetitive; we surely address the question.

Happy investing.
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Regards,
Aurum Capital
SEBI registration No: INA000011024

 

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Musings on valuations of certain stocks

Case study : Valuations

 

These are scenarios of 4 famous companies. which it’s not important to name.

 

Scenario 1 : Your grocery/consumables  bill purchase for the month is 10000 Rs. And you buy at a low-cost famous supermarket. Assume, that someone else offers the same set of goods for Rs 9500/- . What would you do. Most probably, you will buy from the 2nd store.

Scenario 2 : Let’s say you want to buy a TV. Price is 1 lakh and Rs. 30000/- is your down payment. Rest is 0% EMI (financed by store/manufacturer). There are 2 counters of the financial lenders. First one, who is a very well-known and famous lender,  offers 24 month EMI, 2nd one, is not a well-know name but  offers a 30-month EMI. Majority of users would use the 2nd option.

Scenario 3 : You want to buy undergarments. You go to a store which offers it for Rs. 300/- and is a famous brand. There is/are also other brands, which gives same fabric, elastic, finish but sells the product for Rs 200/- . Most will still go with the 1st option due to the brand pull.

Scenario 4 : You want to buy a cruiser bike. You go a showroom of a famous player in this segment who sells it for Rs 2 lakhs. There is an adjoining showroom, which sells a similar cruiser bike with same engine option, etc. and prices it at Rs 1.5 lakh.  Most will go with the 1st one as they had their eyes set on that one.

The first 2 in this example, are superb companies, with superb execution, but point to understand is that there is no moat. One should not confuse great execution with moat. These can be disrupted in a short period, let’s say 2 years. The 3rd and 4th are also great companies, with great execution, but have a superb moat. Disruption, if it has to happen, will take much longer time, maybe 5+ years.

 

The point, I am trying to make is on valuations front. Do all 4 companies deserve similar kind of valuations ?

Just my musings on valuations in some stocks currently in the market.

 

Disclaimer : These are personal thoughts. None of these are recommendations/thoughts by Aurum Capital.

-Jiten Parmar

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Views on parenting

Some views on parenting in today’s age. Views are strictly personal.

Are you your child’s biggest enemy?

This might sound like a very controversial sentence, but if one thinks about it, that is the case with many parents currently. We are really spoiling our children by feeding them from a silver spoon, without the kid realizing that it is a silver spoon. Many of us succeeded because of the struggles we had to go through our lives. And that made us value things. We value time, money, understand that the struggle made us tough to withstand adversities and come out stronger from them. Unfortunately, for many of us, our kids don’t go through that struggle and they never learn to value things. Life is not linear. Adversities will come. Will they be able to handle it ?

My suggestion is, do not give into every demand of your children. Learn to say no, once in a while, and be firm on it. Give them values. Make them realize the importance of time, money. Make them good human beings. Let them struggle a bit. Inculcate good habits in them. Make them work hard. Embrace a concept of delayed gratification. And they will stand a better chance to navigate life and it’s rigours. Get away from leaving too much for the next generation. Give them enough, so that they can get the best education, but don’t leave them so much that they will not do anything in life.

-Jiten Parmar

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Picking Stocks: These 7 Examples Show Why Operating Cash Flow Is More Important than Net Profit

Operating cash flow (OCF) is the key to understanding how well a company is doing. It defines whether, and how much of, the revenues are getting converted to cash. However, most investors lean towards net profit (NP) as the primary metric of a company’s performance. Why?

One of the main reasons is that OCF numbers are provided once in a year while the net profit numbers are provided at the end of every quarter. This gives an opportunity to the media and so-called experts to discuss NP at least four times a year and, accordingly, be more worried—or excited—about growth.

Also, many small investors find it difficult to read these numbers in the annual reports primarily because of fear of the unknown. How does one arrive at OCF and how is it different from NP? Let’s first define NP and OCF, before we proceed to explore the importance of each of the terms.

NP comes from the profit and loss (P&L) statement, while OCF comes from cash flow statement.

Net Profit: Net of revenue or sales after minusing all operating expenses, depreciation, interest and taxes, including any other income and taking into account exceptional items.

Operating Cash Flows (OCF): The net cash generated from operations.

Investing Cash Flows (CFI): The net result of capital expenditure, investments, acquisitions, etc.

Financing Cash Flows (CFF): The net result of raising cash to fund the other flows or repaying debt.

Why OCF and not NP: OCF is a better metric of a company’s financial health for two main reasons. First, cash flow is harder to manipulate than net income. Second, ‘cash is king’ and a company that does not generate cash over the long term is heading towards getting wiped out. OCF gives you the picture of the cash received in the organisation. Without cash, the company may not be able to fulfill its promise to make payments to suppliers, employees and financial institutions on a sustainable basis.

Accrual Accounting System vs Cash Flows: To generate NP, a company may be required to just make a sale. This sale could be either in cash or on credit. If it is a cash sale, it gets recognised in OCF also.

However, business reality is a bit more complex. Most companies provide credit facilities. This could provide an opportunity to manipulate the net profit numbers. Imagine a company that makes a credit sale and, based on it, immediately recognises the sales in the P&L and, accordingly, arrives at the NP number. However, the cash is not received and, hence, OCF does not go up.

What happens if the customer delays the payment or returns the goods or if the sale was bogus? This results in a build-up of receivables in the balance-sheet. But the real OCF has never happened. The company may continue to do so but not indefinitely. It will have to face the reality at some point in time. The receivables numbers then will turn bad debts and result in pain.

Seven Examples

There have been several examples where companies were not generating cash flows but continued to show profits through various means. These companies faced the grim reality at some point in time and their stocks collapsed. Also, if the promoters’ holding is poor or there is a continued equity dilution along with poor OCF, it becomes a deadly cocktail.

There are hundreds of examples. I have chosen seven examples to highlight how following NP and OCF can mislead us. Why these examples? Well, these are some high-flying cases in which many media-savvy analysts, institutional investors, and retail investors have invested or have talked about them. I have discussed these companies with many friends and relatives in the past due to our mutual interest in stocks. I have taken the data only up to the point where I have analysed it last when faced with such queries.

I found a common element in companies with poor OCF. These companies are, often, backed by very strong growth stories and are widely traded in the stock market with lots of hope. These companies were the cynosure of the eyes of stock market players. In these seven cases, too, the stocks were running high with growth stories being spread by analysts and large investors. Eventually, these companies’ stocks, and those of several such companies, which were unable to generate OCF, just crashed by as much as 95% from their peak price.

 

Ideal Situation: How do we know what the NP should be? In an ideal situation, the ideal OCF vsNP ratio should be close to one. The higher the OCF, the better it is. However, there could be a year or two where OCF is down due to market conditions or specific circumstances. But it cannot be for an indefinite period; otherwise, the survival of the company will be in question.

OCF Can Be Fixed Too: One more word of caution. Companies can manipulate OCF also. That’s where a glance at the balance-sheet can catch any discrepancy. Positive OCF can be generated by decreasing the non-cash working capital. Decreasing non-cash working capital means liquidating items like inventory, receivables (you are supposed to get this money from your customers and not by selling it off in the market at a discount) or increasing payables (you are supposed to pay your suppliers and which you don’t).

Are these steps, like liquidating receivables, inventories or increasing payables sustainable? Not at all! Inventories and receivables cannot fall below zero and creditors will not extend credit indefinitely, unless payments are made when due.

One must go through the balance-sheet numbers to see if there are any marked changes in receivables, payables, or working capital numbers from the previous year’s numbers. If so, you know where the problem is.

Exception: There are some exceptions to the rule of OCF, especially with respect to companies that deal only with cash—that is, banks and finance companies. The OCF rule is not applicable in such cases or it needs to be tweaked extensively.

Other Helpful Parameters along with OCF

In addition to OCF, if we also consider the following parameters, it would further help us in our analysis.

  • Interest paid vsnet profit: a ratio of more than 0.4/0.5 is risky
  • Equity dilution on an ongoing basis
  • Promoters’ unpledged holding in the company
  • Trends in receivables
  • Investing and financial cash flows

Final word: NP without OCF is like a body without oxygen and if it is coming with low promoter shareholding, equity dilution and high debt, it is a sure death warrant for the investor.

Reference: http://www.investopedia.com for definitions

Author and disclosure:

Niteen is one of the founders of Aurum Capital, a SEBI-registered investment adviser. Stocks mentioned in the article does not constitute personal recommendations. The analyst does not hold any of the stocks mentioned in the article above. 

Note:
This article was originally published in Moneylife magazine. 

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Interview of Jiten Parmar discussing key principles of investing

Dear All,

Jiten Parmar, the co-founder Aurum Capital, is interviewed by The Unlimited Abundance.

This podcast reveals his 3 principles of investing discipline which helped him amass Multibagger returns with amazing ease.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=-lCU7UVqqPA

Please do share your inputs.

Regards,
Aurum Capital
SEBI registration No: INA000011024

Important Disclaimer:
The stocks named, if any, during the interview are for educational purpose and are not recommendations of any kind (Buy/Sell/Hold). Please consult your registered Investment Advisory or Analyst before taking any financial decisions.